The Executive Director of Sanity Africa Poll, Nathaniel Alpha, has outlined how his organization accurately predicted the opposition National Democratic Congress’ (NDC) victory in the recent Akwatia by-election.
Mr. Alpha explained that the forecast was based on voter perceptions, the prevailing political climate, and the qualities of the candidates fielded by both major parties.
According to him, development concerns and candidate credibility were decisive factors for voters.
“We looked at what voters wanted in their constituency, the period they find themselves in, and whether the New Patriotic Party (NPP) candidate had the capacity to deliver. The NDC also went through a clear process to elect their candidate,” he noted.
He argued that the NPP’s strategy of selecting a so-called “popular candidate” backfired, as the results showed that popularity alone could not secure victory.
Sanity Africa Poll remained engaged with voters throughout the election period, conducting opinion surveys and releasing data at intervals.
Mr. Alpha also addressed differences between his outfit’s projections and those of Global Info Analytics, attributing the variation to sample size and intensified last-minute campaigning by both parties.
“We predicted 52.3% with a margin of plus or minus 3. Two days before the election, political operations picked up, which explained slight variances. But the key was that we called the election for the NDC, which proved accurate,” he explained.
Reflecting on the NPP’s consecutive losses in Ablekuma and Akwatia, Mr. Alpha advised the governing party to engage in serious introspection.
“The party must admit these are not normal times. They must accept polling results in good faith, reconnect with their base, and understand why voters are reacting differently. Until they reflect and adjust, regaining trust will be difficult,” he cautioned.
He concluded that the Electoral Commission’s declared results underscored the gap between perception and reality, urging the NPP to change its approach to rebuild public confidence.
source: myjoyonline
